Future energy challenges

How the world is expected to change in the coming years

Studying the evolution of the world's population can help us discover our future energy needs and be smart about how we work towards meeting them.

How much energy will we need in the future compared to now?

Compare current primary energy consumption with possible scenarios in mind for 2040, according to the International Energy Agency.

Current scenario

  • 32%

    Oil

  • 22%

    Natural gas

  • 27%

    Coal

  • 10%

    Biomass

  • 2%

    Renewables

  • 5%

    Nuclear

  • 2%

    Hydroelectric

2016

13.750 Mtep

XX%

texto

Transparent background Petróleo Gas Natural Carbón Biomasa Renovables Nuclear Hidroeléctrica

Reference scenario (towards where we are headed)

  • 28%

    Oil

  • 25%

    Natural gas

  • 22%

    Coal

  • 10%

    Biomass

  • 6%

    Renewables

  • 6%

    Nuclear

  • 3%

    Hidroelectric

2040

17.584 Mtep

XX%

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Transparent background Petróleo Gas Natural Carbón Biomasa Renovables Nuclear Hidroeléctrica

Sustainability scenario (challenge)

  • 23%

    Oil

  • 25%

    Natural gas

  • 13%

    Coal

  • 11%

    Biomass

  • 14%

    Renewables

  • 10%

    Nuclear

  • 4%

    Hydroelectric

2040

14.084 Mtep

XX%

texto

Transparent background Petróleo Gas Natural Carbón Biomasa Renovables Nuclear Hidroeléctrica

The three IEA scenarios

  1. Current scenario: assumes no changes in policies approved and applied until mid-2017, without including any new policies.
  2. Reference scenario: assumes that policies, plans, and commitments announced by mid-2017 will be carried out, even if they have not been formally approved. It takes into consideration the fulfillment of the Paris Agreement in this regard (in particular the fulfillment of the commitments signed in Paris to reduce emissions between 2020 and 2030, the NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions], as well as the announcements made until mid-2017 that anticipate the tougher stance, for example in China, or the looser stance, for example in the US, regarding these commitments).
  3. Sustainability scenario, the challenge: assumes that the necessary policies to achieve sustainability are applied to three areas: 1) universal access to modern energy in 2030 (electricity, gas for domestic use, etc.); 2) limiting greenhouse gas emissions from energy to fulfill the Paris Agreement's objectives (reaching their peak as soon as possible and subsequently reducing them); and 3) reducing polluting gas emissions linked to energy (pollution), resulting in improved air quality (reducing premature deaths caused by local pollution).