Repsol

Financial context

Economic growth is a determining factor in the evolution of energy demand. Thus, economic growth forecasts are key to determining the future evolution of the sector.

Repsol's Department of Environment Studies and Analysis periodically publishes a report on economic growth forecasts and on the Financial Stability Report produced by the International Monetary Fund. The economic forecasts from the regulatory body which monitors monetary stability are completely revised in April and October and partial updates are made for key indicators in January and July.

IMF economic forecasts and Financial Stability Report (PDF 181 Kb) (Available only in Spanish)

Latest forecasts from the IMF

			Current Forecasts		Dif. compared to Jan-10 update
	2009	2010	2011	2012	2011	2012
Global GDP	-3.4	5.0	4.4	4.5	0.0	0.0
Advanced economies	-2.6	3.0	2.4	2.6	-0.1	0.1
USA	-4.1	2.8	2.8	2.9	-0.2	0.2
Euro Zone	-2.5	1.7	1.6	1.8	0.1	0.1
- Germany	-5.2	3.5	2.5	2.1	0.3	0.1
- France	-3.7	1.5	1.6	1.8	0.0	0.0
- Italy	-6.3	1.3	1.1	1.3	0.1	0.0
- Spain	-4.9	-0.1	0.8	1.6	0.2	0.1
Japan	-2.5	3.9	1.4	2.1	-0.2	0.3
United Kingdom	-1.2	1.3	1.7	2.3	-0.3	0.0
Canada	-0.8	3.1	2.8	2.6	0.5	-0.1
Other advanced economies	-1.2	5.7	3.9	3.8	0.1	0.1
Recently industrialised Asian economies	-0.8	8.4	4.9	4.5	0.2	0.2
Developing countries	2.7	7.1	6.5	6.5	0.0	0.0
Sub-Saharan Africa	2.8	5.0	5.5	5.9	0.0	0.1
Emerging Asia	7.2	9.5	8.4	8.4	0.0	0.0
- China	9.2	10.3	9.6	9.5	0.0	0.0
- India	6.8	10.4	8.0	7.8	-0.2	-0.2
- ASEAN-5	1.7	6.9	5.4	5.7	-0.1	0.0
Middle East and North Africa (1)	1.8	3.8	4.1	4.2	-0.5	-0.5
Latin America	-1.7	6.1	4.7	4.2	0.4	-0.1
- Brazil	-0.6	7.5	4.5	4.1	0.0	0.0
Evolution of global trade	-10.9	12.4	7.4	6.9	0.3	0.1
Evolution of oil prices (%)(2)	-36.3	27.9	35.6	0.8	22.2	0.5
Consumer prices
- Developed economies	0.1	1.6	2.2	1.7	0.6	0.1
- Developing economies	5.2	6.2	6.9	5.3	0.9	0.5

(1) Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam

(2) Average Brent spot prices in U.K., Dubai and West Texas Intermediate. The average price of oil in 2010 was $79.03 per barrel, the assumed price on the futures market is $107.16 per barrel in 2011 and $108 per barrel in 2012.

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