On October 13th Repsol's Downstream Executive Director, Pedro Fernández Frial, stressed some data provided during the Q&A session that took place after the presentations in the visit to the Cartagena refinery.
The refining margin at which break even EBITDA is achieved without the Cartagena and Bilbao projects being on stream is 1.5 $/bbl. This figure will remain at 1.5 $/bbl after start up of projects.
The sensitivity of annual EBIT to changes in 1 $/bbl of refining margin is 200 M€.
The 4,080 M€ investment in the upgrade of Cartagena and Bilbao will be most likely amortized in a period of 20 years.
The capex plan in the Downstream business will decrease by 600 M€ 2012 vs 2011, whereas in Refining, capex will go down by 700 M€ between those two periods. That is to say, Downstream capex in 2012 will be between 1 and 1.1 Bn€ whereas Refining capex in 2012 will be around 500 M€. From 2013 and onwards, the maintenance capex of the Refining business of Repsol in Spain will be between 300 and 400 M€.
Bearing in mind a scenario of a 2$/bbl premium on top of the 2012 refining margin, assuming investments are amortized in 20 years and taking into account that capex will decrease by 700 M€, the increase in the free operating cash flow before taxes in 2012 vs that of 2011 will be between 1.1 and 1.3 Bn€.
Find below the link to the presentations now available in our website as well as to the transcript of the webcast.